Potential impacts of climate change on dengue fever distribution using RCP scenarios in China

摘要

This study projected dengue distribution risk map using representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5)in China in 2020s,2030s,2050s and 2100s.Based on the biological characteristics of Aedes albopictus and the dengue epidemic process,dengue transmission biological model was developed to project the risk epidemic areas.Observational temperature data in 1981-2016 at 740 stations and grid data of 0.5°×0.5°(15°-55.5°N,70°-140.5E)under selected RCPs in 2020s,2030s,2050s and 2100s were used.Relative to 142 counties and 168 million people living in the projected high risk area of dengue in the climate condition of 1981-2016,dengue high risk areas in China would expand under same RCP scenarios in the 21st century with time past except RCP2.6 with a turning down point in 2050s.Especially under RCP8.5 which global mean temperature would increase by 4.9 C till 2100s,the high risk area and population for dengue transmission would expand additional 34 counties(20 million)in 2020s,114 counties(60 million)in 2030s,208 counties(160 million)in 2050 and 456 counties(490 million)in 2100s respectively than those of 1981-2016.For RCP8.5 in 2100s,the population and expanded high risk areas would increase 4.2-fold and 2.9-fold than the 1981-2016 mean.The newly added high risk areas should prepare for controlling and preventing dengue in different period according to projected dengue risk map.