Evaluation and Projection of Temperature Extremes over China Based on CMIP5 Model

摘要

Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIP5.Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data,multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures.The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10.The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98.Under the RCP4.5 scenario,more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble.By the middle of the 21st century,the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times.At the end of the 21st century,the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%,and the 20-year return value will increase 4 C in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.