Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) University of Information Science and Technology 210044;
International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology of Hawaii at Manoa 96822;
persistent heavy rainfall; middle and lower Yangtze River basin; future projection; CMIP5 and CMIP6 models; generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution;