Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La Niña Event?

摘要

Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI)and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)Outlook issued in April 2022,La Niña is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall,indicating a high possibility of a three-year La Niña(2020-23).It would be the first three-year La Niña since the 1998-2001 event,which is the only observed three-year La Niña event since 1980.By examining the status of air-sea fields over the tropical Pacific in March 2022,it can be seen that while the thermocline depths were near average,the southeasterly wind stress was at its strongest since 1980.Here,based on a quaternary linear regression model that includes various relevant air-sea variables over the equatorial Pacific in March,we argue that the historic southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the emergence of the third-year La Niña,and both the anomalous easterly and southerly wind stress components are important and contribute~50%of the third-year La Niña growth,respectively.Additionally,the possible global climate impacts of this event are discussed.