电力市场环境下负荷预测误差风险直接影响售电公司经营效益和供电的安全性和稳定性.为提高售电公司的经济性和稳定性,从负荷预测误差与负荷类型的研究角度出发,利用灰色系统理论、最小二乘支持向量机模型对中长期负荷进行了预测,并提出了预测加权误差这一概念,重点讨论某地区主要负荷类型与其预测加权误差之间的关联关系.分析结果使得负荷预测结果更为切合电力市场环境,为以后用电侧开放的售电公司的经营策略、稳定供电提供了一种新的思路.%The load forecasting error risk direct impact on operating benefits of electricity grid companies and safety and stability of power supply. In order to improve the economy and stability of electricity grid companies,from the study perspective of the load forecasting errors and load types, the long-term load is predicted based on grey model and least square support vector machine model. This paper also proposes the notion of weighted error of load forecasting, and focuses on the association between weighted errors of load forecasting and load types of one area. The analysis results show that the load forecasting results are more in line with power market environment,which offer a new way of thinking for operating strategy of open electricity grid companies and stable power supply.
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