基于成熟度的智能电网综合评估模型及其软件

摘要

Considering the continuous construction and development of smart grid,and to guide the direction for its up⁃grade and reconstruction,it is necessary to measure the readiness of key technology,the maturity of project and the in⁃tellectualized level of regional power grid. In this paper,a model of comprehensive evaluation of smart grid(CESG)is built,which consists of models of technology readiness evaluation(TRE),project maturity assessment(PMA)as well as regional intellectualized level evaluation(RILE). These models introduce a technology readiness level(TRL)meth⁃od to evaluate the key elements related to the technologies. In addition,considering the uncertainty of the underlying in⁃dexes,confidence coefficients are given. Moreover,the predictions in time and space dimensions in RILE are conduct⁃ed. Based on the proposed model,a software platform of CESG is developed,which can further identify the advantages and disadvantages of the technologies,projects and regional grids while displaying the evaluation results. The effective⁃ness of the proposed model and CESG platform are verified and improved by some applications.%基于智能电网不断建设与发展的现状，并为电网后续提升改造指引方向，本文构建了包括智能电网技术成熟度、项目成熟度和区域智能化水平的评估模型在内的智能电网综合评估CESG（comprehensive evaluation of smart grid）模型。引入技术成熟度等级TRL（technology readiness level）评价方法评估与技术本身相关的关键元素；同时考虑底层指标的不确定性给出评估结果的置信度；在区域智能化水平评估中进行了时间与空间维度的预测推演。在该模型基础上开发了实用的智能电网综合评估软件CESG，在展示评估结果的同时，可进一步辨识出目前技术、项目和区域电网的优势环节与薄弱环节。经多个实例的实践应用，校验并完善了模型及CESG平台的有效性。