基于输电断面识别的电力系统连锁故障风险评估模型

摘要

This paper proposes an advanced risk assessment model of cascading failures. Taking the characteristics of the line failure probability and the impact of real-time power flow into account, the model uses the method of the line segment fitting to calculate the probability of line outage. By analyzing the double impact of cascading failures both on the supply side and the electricity users, the paper uses the bus low voltage, the power flow relative shift amount and the relative amount of load loss to assess the consequences of the cascading failure. The proposed algorithm recognizes the relative transmission section by the active power increase factor, and then selects the next branch failure link contained in the transmission section to avoid the whole network traversal search. Finally, the simulation of IEEE 39 bus system proves the validity of this method.%提出了一种改进的电力系统连锁故障风险评估模型。该模型综合考虑了线路故障概率的泊松分布特性以及实时潮流大小的影响，给出了线路停运概率的直线分段拟合计算方法。通过分析连锁故障对供电方和用电方的双重影响，采用母线低电压、潮流相对转移量、系统相对失负荷量作为连锁故障的后果评估函数。所提算法在连锁故障的某一环节选定后，利用有功增加因子先识别剩余网络中相对于该故障环节的输电断面，再在输电断面所含支路中选择下一故障环节，避免了全网遍历搜索。最后对IEEE 39节点系统进行了仿真分析，证明了该方法的有效性。