微网运行中存在发电单元故障停运以及可再生能源发电单元出力和负荷的波动性，从而合理安排旋转备用容量是维持微网安全、经济运行的重要环节。基于风电出力、光伏出力和负荷日前预测误差模型，利用全概率公式分别构建了综合预测误差及故障停运的风电和光伏出力不确定性分布模型，通过离散化风光出力和负荷不确定性分布与可调度机组停运概率分布联合生成微网功率不确定性离散分布模型，进而提出了计及微网功率不确定性以微网运行成本最小化为目标函数的微网最优旋转备用计算模型并考虑了微网向主网提供旋转备用。最后通过一个微网系统算例，采用混合整数遗传算法优化求解微网最优旋转备用值，验证了所建模型的合理性。%Due to unit outage and fluctuation of renewable power generation and load, scheduling reasonable amount of spinning reserve is important for maintaining safe and economical operation of microgrids. Based on day-ahead forecast errors models of wind power, photovoltaic power and load, the uncertainty distribution models of wind power and photovoltaic power are built by total probability formula that comprehensively considers forecast errors and unit outage. After discretizing wind power, photovoltaic power and load uncertainty distributions, the discrete uncertainty distribution model of microgrid power is generated combining with the outage probability distributions of dispatchable units. Then taking minimized microgrid total social cost as objective, a computing model of optimal spinning reserve in microgrids is presented considering uncertain factors of microgrid power and supplying spinning reserve to the main grid. Finally an example confirms the feasibility of the proposed model after optimizing the spinning reserve by mixed-integer genetic algorithm. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50837003).
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