The ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is of significance for the operation of grid-connected wind power generation system. However, the evaluation of the prediction results often focuses on the conventional statistical indicators only, lacking a reasonable system to evaluate forecasting models for a particular wind power farm. This paper introduces the deficiency of the current wind power prediction results evaluation, and presents an assessment method of the wind power farm real-time output prediction, providing the basis for wind farms in different regions in the selection of the prediction model according to the characteristics of the wind power output power. Finally, simulations are performed using the real data from a wind farm of Jilin Province, and then the new evaluation method is used to evaluate three different predictive tools. The evaluation results verify the correctness and superiority of the method proposed in the paper, giving its practical value.%超短期风电功率预测对含大规模风电的电力系统安全经济运行有着重要意义.但目前对预测结果的评价均停留在常规统计学指标上,缺乏合理的评价体系来评价某特定风电场所选取预测模型的优劣.简述了目前风电功率预测结果评价指标的不足,提出一种基于预测误差评价和预报考核等指标的风电场输出功率实时预测效果评估方法,为不同地区风电场根据其风电输出功率变化的特点,选择预测模型以及风电场输出功率预测效果的工程检验提供依据.最后,利用吉林省某风电场实测数据,采用该评估方法对不同预测模型的实时预测结果进行分析评价,实现了该风电场不同预测模型间的择优,验证了该评价方法的指导价值.
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