多场景概率机组组合在含风电系统中的备用协调优化

摘要

备用配置是系统抵御风险、提高运行可靠性的重要手段,也是系统运行安全与经济协调决策的问题.提出了基于状态转移的概率机组组合方法,该方法将风电的运行场景离散化,通过对风电预测误差进行概率表达,并在时间尺度上考虑状态的转移矩阵组成多场景的方法,以场景发生的概率协调系统在场景下的调度决策,并以实时校正备用作为正常和误差场景之间机组的调整限制.通过安全与经济的协调,能够自动为风电出力的波动配置适宜的备用,且模型中考虑了网络安全约束对机组组合和备用决策的影响.最后对含风电系统进行了实例仿真分析,结果表明模型的有效性和可行性,对风电的调度和规划具有指导意义.%Spinning reserve is one of the most important resources used by system operators to maintain system security and improve operational reliability, and it also involves with the decision making in coordinating the system's operation safety and economy. This paper proposes a multi -scenario probabilistic unit commitment model based on the state transition technique through probabilistic expression of wind power forecast error and discretization of the wind power error scene, considering the states transfer matrix specially. To make the scheduling decisions according to the scenario probability, the reserve is set to the adjustment limit of units between the normal and error scenarios. Through the coordination between safety and economy, the reserve requirement according to the wind power fluctuation is automatically optimized. The network security constraints are included in the model with their impacts on the unit commitment and reserve optimization considered. Tests using an illustrative small system are presented, showing effectiveness and efficiency of the integrated generation scheduling, and it is of guiding significance to the scheduling and planning of wind power.