地区电网降温负荷与气温的敏感性分析

摘要

采用最大负荷比较法，对比了4种基准负荷的选择方法，依据实际电网的负荷数据，选择实际负荷减去基础负荷后得到的降温负荷与实际值最接近的情况所对应的基础负荷作为最终方案，建立了降温负荷与气温的敏感性高阶回归模型，据此获得降温负荷受气温影响的规律。将该方法应用于深圳电网降温负荷与气温的敏感性分析，得到相应的变化规律，获得深圳电网降温负荷的测算方法，为电网的生产调度、优化运行和营销工作提供重要参考依据。%The comparative method of maximum load is used in this paper, comparing four reference load selection methods ap-plied to grid load data, selecting the reference load which result is the closest to actual cooling load as the final program. This paper establishes high-order regression models between the cooling load and the temperature, analyzes the cooling load influenced by tem-perature in Shenzhen grid, which will provide important reference for production scheduling, the optimal operation and marketing work of the grid.