基于行业用电特性的用户报装容量饱和度分析

摘要

基于行业用电特性构建了2个报装容量饱和度指标，即实用系数和阶段系数。在此基础上结合行业分类、K-均值聚类算法提出了报装容量饱和度分析模型。通过分析用户实用系数的统计规律，得到用户实用系数的分布和行业实用系数的差异；通过阶段系数的聚类分析，得到不同类型用户实际负荷的发展情况，为配网建设提供指导依据。最后通过对南京地区用户报装容量饱和度分析，验证了该模型的实用性。%This paper establishes two saturability indexes of new capacity based on electricity industry characteristics. They are practical coefficient and staged coefficient. This paper proposes an analytical model of new capacity saturability with classification of in⁃dustry and K⁃mean clustering. Through analyzing statistical regulari⁃ties of user practical coefficient, it obtains distribution of user practi⁃cal coefficient and difference among industry practical coefficients. Through clustering analysis of staged coefficient, it obtains develop⁃ment situation of actual load among different kinds of users, provid⁃ing guidance for construction of distribution network. In the end, this paper verifies the model practicability with analyzing saturability of new capacity in Nanjing area.