山体滑坡海事风险的三维测度方法

摘要

为了更科学地评判山体滑坡灾害导致的海事风险并且科学实施水上交通管制决策,研究山体滑坡海事风险的三维测度方法.以大中规模剧动式滑坡涌浪为研究对象,根据山体滑坡海事风险的形成过程研究其海事风险的三维测度方法,提出了以山体滑坡变形破坏阶段、 滑坡涌浪规模、 涌浪损毁船舶的系统风险综合系数为测度指标的海事风险评判模型,并通过实例说明该方法及风险评判模型的应用.研究结论表明:该海事风险测度方法及评判模型,考虑了山体滑坡险情水上交通管制的主要因素,全面地反映了山体滑坡灾害导致的海事风险特征.%In order to scientifically evaluate the marine risks caused by the landslide disaster and scientifically implement water traffic control decision, the three-dimensional measure method of the maritime risks of landslides is studied.With large and medium scale motion type landslide surge as the research object, according to formation process of landslides maritime risk, three-dimensional measurement method is studied. The landslide deformation failure stage, scale of landslide surge, surge of damaged ship system risk comprehensive coefficient to measure the maritime risk evaluation model is put forward.The example illustrates the application of this method and risk evaluation model. Research results indicate that the maritime risk measure methods and evaluation model, considering the main factors of the landslide danger water traffic control, fully reflect the maritime risk characteristics caused by landslide.