阶层分化与农民乡城永久迁移--基于CGSS 2010数据分析

摘要

CGSS 2010 data showed that less than one tenth of peasants have completed the permanent migration, and nearly one tenth of peasants have the intention of permanent migration.Stratification has important impact on peasants' permanent migration.The ratio of the persons who have completed the permanent migration and have the intention of permanent migration in white-collar peasants is the highest, followed by blue-collar and unemployed, semi unemployed peasants, while the ratio in the agricultural labor is the lowest.The subjective stratum and mobility expectation has positive effect on the peasants' permanent migration intention.The higher the subjective stratum level, the better the mobility expectation, the higher the peasants' intention to permanent migration.In order to promote the urbanization process, the new urbanization policy should be designed to improve the living environment of blue-collar, increase vocational skills training and broaden the channels for peasants into the white-collar.%CGSS 2010的数据分析发现,只有不到1/10的农民已经实现乡城永久迁移,接近1/10的农民有乡城永久迁移意愿.阶层分化对农民乡城永久迁移具有重要影响:白领阶层农民已经永久迁移和有永久迁移意愿的比率均最高,蓝领阶层和无业、失业、半失业者阶层次之,农业劳动者阶层最低;主观阶层、阶层流动预期对农民乡城永久迁移意愿具有正向影响,主观阶层等级越高,阶层流动预期越好的农民永久迁移意愿越高.新型城镇化的制度设计应改善蓝领阶层的生存环境、加大农民的职业技能培训、拓宽农民进入白领阶层的渠道,以推进农民的城镇化进程.