Economics,fundamentals,technology,finance,speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices:an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

摘要

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables,namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count,US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis.Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel,respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.