劳动力年龄分布、老龄化趋势与出口比较优势

摘要

Not only the relative number of labor affects export comparative advantage,but labor age distribution also affects the export comparative advantage. In this regard,this paper uses the system GMM approach of dynamic panel data and 28 manu-facturing industries data from 2001-2010 to do empirical test. After control the variables such as FDI,total factor productivity and R&D intensity,we find there are positive correlations between 16-29 age and 30-44 age labor distribution share and in-dustries’ export trade,a negative correlation between 45-64 age labor distribution share and the industries’ export trade. Moreover,population aging trend is bad to the comparative advantage of China’s export. In addition,the traditional factor en-dowment theory continues to play a role in China,capital-labor ratio and export trade have a negative correlation significantly.%不仅劳动力相对数量影响出口比较优势，劳动力年龄分布同样影响出口比较优势。对此，本文采取动态面板数据系统GMM方法，利用我国2001-2010年28个制造业行业数据进行实证检验，在对FDI、全要素生产率和研发密度等变量进行控制后，发现16-29岁和30-44岁劳动力分布比重与行业出口贸易正相关，45-64岁劳动力分布比重与行业出口贸易负相关；而且，人口老龄化趋势对出口贸易不利。此外，传统要素禀赋理论在我国仍然发挥作用，资本劳动比也显著地与出口贸易负相关。