西藏人口老龄化现状与发展趋势预测

摘要

Population ageing is a common issue of world population development. As its falling fertility rates and increasing life expectancy,the ageing problems of Tibet begin to show up. Using data from The Six National Population Census of Tibet,it is found that the whole Tibet is not an ageing society at present,but some minorities have become typical ageing population,and some regions have present trends of ageing. The features of population aging in Tibet are as following:Tibetan is the main part of older people,native minorities are high in ageing level and ageing levels of regions are imbalance. Although Tibet is at the initial stage of ageing society, it is necessary to deal with ageing problems strategically and in advance. So it is necessary to make a judgment of the trends of the population ageing of Tibet and put forward some measurements to deal with the problem.%人口老龄化是世界人口发展面临的共同问题。随着生育率的下降和人均预期寿命的延长，西藏的人口老龄化问题逐渐显露出来。通过对西藏自治区2010年人口普查资料的分析发现，虽然西藏整体尚未进入老龄化社会，但个别民族已经成为典型的老年型人口，局部地区也呈现出老龄化形态。西藏人口老龄化具有老年人口以藏族为主、世居民族老龄化程度高、老龄化程度地区发展不平衡等特点。尽管西藏还处在老龄化的初期，但应对老龄化问题必须具有战略性和超前性，鉴于此，本文对西藏未来40年人口老龄化的发展趋势进行了预测，并结合西藏的实际情况，提出探索应对西藏人口老龄化的途径。