激活区域LNG产业链的经济贡献及产业政策建议——以川渝地区为例

摘要

截至2016年底,全国共有建成、在建LNG加工厂160座,但全年平均开工率仅为37％.川渝地区是全国天然气市场最为成熟的区域,其天然气产业的发展具有代表性.近年来,该区域投资兴建了多座LNG加工厂,但开工率不足30％,严重偏低,区域内的LNG产业链发展较为迟缓.为此,首先剖析了该区LNG加工厂开工率不足的原因:①缺乏强有力的产业政策引导;②LNG下游市场规模有限,导致LNG市场需求量严重不足.然后分析了激活区域内LNG产业链对地方GPD、税收、就业岗位和环境效益的贡献,测算结果表明:若川渝地区LNG日需求量达1 500×104 m3,则每年可贡献GDP 512.03亿元、就业岗位15 795个、税收41.17亿元、减排各类污染物369.9×104 t.进而提出了激活区域LNG产业链的建议:①移植新能源汽车优惠政策,全面扶持LNG汽车发展;②相关部门出台专项政策支持LNG加注站建设,促进LNG终端网络形成;③利用LNG作为城市燃气调峰和应急储备;④建立合理的LNG终端零售价格机制.%By the end of 2016,there had been totally 160 completed and uncompleted LNG processing plants in China,but yearly average rate of operation was only 37％.Sichuan-Chongqing area has the most mature natural gas markets in China,and its natural gas industry development is representative.In recent years,many LNG processing plants have been invested and constructed in this area,but the operation rate is severely low,lower than 30％,and the LNG business chain in this area develops slowly.In this paper,the reasons for the insufficient operation rate of LNG processing plants in this area were firstly analyzed.It is indicated that due to the shortage of powerful industry policy guidance and the limited scale of LNG downstream market,LNG market demand is seriously deficient.Then,the contribution to local GDP,tax revenue,employment position and environmental benefit by activating regional LNG business chain was calculated.It is shown that if the daily LNG demand is 1 500× 104 m3 in Sichuan-Chongqing area,its yearly contribution to GDP,employment position,tax revenue and pollutant emission reduction is CNY 51.203× 109,15 795,CNY 4.117x 109 and 369.9× 104 t,respectively.Finally,four suggestions on activating the regional LNG business chain were proposed.First,the preferential policies of new energy vehicle should be transplanted to fully support the development of LNG vehicles.Second,relevant departments should issue special policies to support the construction of LNG filling stations and promote the formation of LNG terminal networks.Third,LNG should be used for city gas peak shaving and emergency storage.And fourth,the rational LNG terminal retail price mechanism should be established.