安全是旅游业发展的生命线.旅游地安全风险已成为我国旅游业可持续发展的重要障碍因素,也是近年来国内外旅游科学研究关注的重点领域之一.青藏铁路沿线是我国旅游业发展的重要区域,也是旅游高风险区域.以风险理论为基础,在充分考虑旅游风险评估复杂性和不确定性的基础上,构建了青藏铁路沿线旅游风险评级指标体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评判方法,对青藏铁路沿线10大区段旅游旺季的风险进行评估.结果发现:低风险区段有6个:湟水谷地区段、拉萨河谷区段、柴达木盆地东北亚高山区段、柴达木盆地盐湖戈壁区段、青海湖盆地区段、昆仑高山区段；一般风险区段有2个:念青唐古拉宽谷盆地区段、怒江源宽谷区段；高风险区段有2个:可可西里-长江源宽谷区段、唐古拉极高山区段.%Tourism risk is an obstacle of Chinese tourism development and an important research field at home and abroad in recent years. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of risk assessment, the article builds a travel risk evaluation index system along the Qinghai - Tibet Railway based on analytic hierarchy process ( AHP) and fuzzy evaluation. The article has a quantitative assessment to ten sight sections on July along the Qinghai - Tibet Railway. The results shows that the Qinghai - Tibet railway tourism risk sequence from low to high is Huangshui valley section, Lhasa valley section, northeast high mountain of Qaidam Basin, Qinghai Lake basin section, Gobi and Saline Lake of Qaidam basin, Kunlun mountain area, Nyainqentanglha valley basin section, Nu River valley section, Kekexili - Yangtze valley section and Tanggula Mountain. The conclusion can assure plateau tourism safety and provide the important reference for plateau tourism sustainable development.
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