京津冀协同发展背景下天津产业结构升级空间与路径分析

摘要

采用传统偏离—份额分析法,以全国为参照系,分析了天津市产业结构的发展历程;依据偏离—份额分析法的空间模型,以京津冀地区为参照系,并用城市经济引力模型的城市间产业引力来计算空间权重,分析了天津产业结构的升级空间;并使用超前系数和Moore值测评了天津产业结构升级的方向和速率.结论表明,天津市第二产业区域竞争力优势较大,第三产业发展受来自全国和京津冀区域的积极影响较大.因此,京律冀协同发展背景下天津市产业结构升级应当继续保持第二产业的竞争优势,并且发展与第二产业相配套的生产性服务业,实现二、三产业协同发展.%The paper first analyzed the development of industrial structure in Tianjin by traditional shift-share analysis.Then,by referring to the city gravitational models,we used economic gravitation to calculate the influence of cities nearby on Tianjin's industrial structure.After that we analyzed the capacity and way of upgrading industrial structure in Tianjin.Then we measured the direction and speed of upgrading by the value of overstepping and Moore coefficient.Finally the conclusion shows that the second industry tend to be competitive while the third industry is greatly promoted,so it is advised to keep the competition advantages of the second industry and put more weight on the productive services to realize collaborative development.