基于组合优化理论的体育彩票销售量预测模型

摘要

In order to obtain the high?precision sports lottery sales forecast result,and ensure the healthy development of the lottery industry,a new sports lottery sales forecasting model based on combinatorial optimization theory is put forward. The wavelet analysis is used to decompose the sports lottery sales,and the grey model and least square support vector machine are used to model the high?frequency information and low?frequency information respectively,then the forecast result of the sports lottery sales is obtained according to the weight value. The results show that the model can overcome the deficiency existing in single sports lottery sales forecast model,describe the change trend of the sports lottery sales comprehensively and objectively, the forecast result is more satisfactory and credible,and provides the useful reference information for lottery industry.%为了获得高精度的体育彩票销售量预测结果，保证彩票产业的健康发展，提出了组合优化理论的体育彩票销售量预测模型。首先采用小波分析对体育彩票销售量进行分解，然后分别采用灰色模型和最小二乘支持向量机分别对高频信息和低频信息进行建模，最后根据权重值得到体育彩票销售量的预测结果。结果表明，提出的模型克服了单一体育彩票销售量预测模型的不足，全面、客观地刻画了体育彩票销售量的变化趋势，预测结果更加理想和可信，可以为彩票产业提供有用的参考信息。