我国粮食贸易格局的主要影响因素及未来发展方向研究

摘要

With the deepening of globalization and regionalization,the grain trade as an important component of the world economic exchanges,profoundly affects the overall pattern of the international trade.Since 2004,China has transformed a net food exporting country into a net food importing one.Although the trade has been expanding,China has consistently run trade deficit.In the future,China’s grain production supply and demand gap will expand and the trade deficit is likely to widen.Based on China’s current pattern of grain trade,the paper analyzed the main influence factors and predicted the future pattern.Rice,corn and soybean were considered in the study.%随着全球化和区域化发展趋势的不断加强，粮食贸易作为世界经济往来的重要组成部分，深刻影响着各国对外贸易的整体格局。自2004年起，我国由粮食净出口国转变成净进口国，虽然贸易规模不断扩大，但一直处于逆差状态。在未来，我国粮食的供求缺口将长期存在，贸易逆差也有进一步扩大的趋势。该文根据我国粮食贸易格局现状，分析其主要影响因素并对未来发展方向进行预测，所研究的粮食种类主要包括稻谷、玉米和大豆。