1109号超强台风“梅花”预报误差分析及思考

摘要

针对2011年第9号超强台风＂梅花＂的预报服务,中央气象台在其路径、强度和降雨预报方面均出现了一定偏差,在一定程度上造成了预报服务的被动。本文利用常规及非常规气象资料、业务数值预报模式、NCEP再分析资料（1°×1°）以及国家气象中心海气耦合模式对＂梅花＂的预报偏差进行了初步分析,结果发现：（1）＂梅花＂路径预报偏差的主要原因是乐观地估计了日本附近副热带高压向黄海的西进,而西风槽和双台风对＂梅花＂北上具有重要影响,＂梅花＂东侧的1110号台风＂苗柏＂东北行则对副热带高压南落具有一定指示意义;（2）当数值预报存在较大分歧时,如何更好地发挥集合/集成预报的作用,是进一步提高台风路径预报准确率的关键;（3）＂梅花＂强度预报偏差的主要原因是仅片面考虑了海温的影响,而忽视了干空气卷入和环境风垂直切变对台风强度变化的影响;（4）＂梅花＂降雨预报的偏差除了受＂梅花＂路径和强度预报的偏差影响外,还与业务预报中对＂梅花＂干台风特征的估计不足以及中低纬系统相互作用弱有关。%During operational forecasting and service for Super Typhoon Muifa（1109） in Central Meteorological Observatory,there are some errors in its track,intensity and precipitation forecasting.The forecast errors partly caused a passive situation in its operational forecasting and service.In this paper,conventional and unconventional meteorological data,operational numerical prediction models,NCEP reanalysis data （1°×1°） and coupled ocean-atmosphere model of National Meteorological Centre（NMC） are used to make a preliminary analysis on these forecast errors.The results show that;（1） The track forecast error for Muifa is mainly attributed to the optimistic estimation of the westward movement toward the Yellow Sea of the subtropical high near Japan,while westerly trough and binary typhoons have an important influence on the northward movement of Muifa.And the northeastward movement of Typhoon Merbok（1110） at the east of Muifa has a certain sense of direction for the southward withdraw of the subtropical high.（2） When there are big differences between operational numerical prediction models,it is the key how to better use ensemble and consensus forecast products for further improving the accuracy of typhoon track prediction. （3） The intensity prediction error of Muifa is mainly due to the one sided consideration about the impact of sea surface temperature on typhoon intensity change,while ignoring the influences of dry air and environmental vertical wind shear.（1） In addition to be concerned with the forecast errors of the track and intensity,the precipitation forecast error for Muifa is also related to the underestimation on the characteristics of dry typhoon about Muifa and the weak interaction between the low and middle latitude systems.