2013年黑龙江省主汛期降水异常特征及其对作物产量影响的分析

摘要

利用黑龙江省77个气象台站1961—2013年6—8月逐日降水资料，采用降水集中度和集中期、统计回归等方法，分析了2013年黑龙江省主汛期降水异常的气候统计和时空分布特征，与1998年数据进行了对比分析，并探讨评估了其对粮食作物产量的影响。结果表明：黑龙江省2013年主汛期雨日多、大范围连续强降水密集且早发，降水异常偏多，降水量为近53年的最高极值；空间分布上不存在明显的经向或纬度变化规律，降水高值区主要分布在松嫩平原，沿江流域站点平均降水量略少；时间变化上呈少—多—少的分布，强降水集中期为7月上旬，也是主汛期内降水最多时段。2013年主汛期降水与1998年在时空分布上存在差异，降水量、持续时间均超过1998年，尤其表现在黑龙江流域，但1998年降水的局地性和突发性较强。采用FY-3 A／MERSI卫星数据持续跟踪监测作物被淹没面积，以 WOFOST 模型模拟受淹前的平均单产，依据淹没时间超过7 d时作物无有效产量进行估算，2013年黑龙江省13个行政区因流域性洪涝灾害导致水稻和玉米总损失产量合计达3．97×109 kg。%Based on daily precipitation data from June to August during 1961-2013 from 77 weather sta-tions,using the methods of precipitation concentration period,precipitation concentration degree and sta-tistical regression,this paper studies the distribution and variation of the main flood season precipitation and the comparison between 2013 and 1998,and analyses influence of abnormal precipitation on crop yield. The results show that rain days in 2013 are more than other years in Heilongjiang.A wide range of contin-uous heavy rain is more intensive and earlier.The precipitation is abnormally more,getting to the extreme value in the past 53 years.There aren’t obvious spatial change characteristics in longitude or latitude.The areas with most precipitation are in Songnen Plain while the less rainfall areas are along the river basin. The temporal variation is in the style of less-more-less.The concentrated period of the severe rainfall is the first dekad of July,when the most precipitation is collected during the whole flood season.There are differences in temporal-spatial distributions of precipitation in main flood season between 2013 and 1998. The amount and duration of precipitation in 2013 exceed the previous peaks in 1998,especially in Heilong River Valley.However the rainfall has some local features and sudden ones in 1998.By using FY-3A/MERSI satellite data and WOFOST crop model,this paper consistently monitors flooded crop planting are-a,and simulates crop yield in flooded regions,and on the basis of this,this paper evaluates the crop pro-duction losses.The sum of losses is 3.97×109 kg.