Based on the observation data of 24-hour cumulative precipitation from 92 ground meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi province from March to July during 2015-2016 and the high-resolution numerical forecast data of precipitation predicted within 24-72 h by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts( ECMWF),the Gamma function was used as the fitting function of probability distribution of cumulative precipitation to match the probability of predicted and observed precipitation. Moreover,the change of forecast score before and after the correction was tested. The results showed that the predicted values of heavy precipitation based on ECMWF model were smaller than the observed values,while the predicted values of light precipitation were larger than the observed values. The probability matching correction method could be used to effectively correct systematic errors of model forecast,and the correction effect of all grades of precipitation( especially for rainstorm) was good.The shorter the period of validity was,the better the correction effect was. The correction method has a good application effect in the interpretation of model precipitation products,and can provide better security services for agricultural production.
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