Study on Statistical Forecast Method for O_3 Concentration near the Ground in Pudong District of Shanghai Based on Meteorological Condition Analysis

摘要

[Objective]The research aimed to study statistical forecast method for O3 concentration near the ground in Pudong District of Shanghai based on meteorological condition analysis. [Method] Via observation and statistical analysis of the O3 concentration near the ground in Pudong District of Shanghai from 2006 to 2008, by considering meteorological condition, a kind of simple and practical new method suiting for forecast of the O3 concentration and pre-warning of the high-concentration O3 pollution event in whole year was established. [Result]Meteorological condition had obvious influence on O3 concentration near the ground. O3 concentration was the biggest in sunny day, followed by cloudy day. O3 concentration near the ground had typical seasonal change characteristics, and high value mainly happened in summer. Meteorological condition generating high-concentration O3 included sunny day, strong UV radiation, low relative humidity, high temperature and small wind speed, etc. By surveying historical weather chart, 10 kinds of main weather situations affecting Shanghai were summed. Under each weather situation, occurrence probability of the high-concentration O3 near the ground and average O3 concentration were conducted statistics. We found that occurrence probability of the high-concentration O3 was the biggest under northwest side of the subtropical high type, followed by internal type of the subtropical high. By introducing HPPI and WDI and comprehensively considering various meteorological factors, forecasting equation of the O3 concentration was established based on stepwise regression. The equation had good fitting effect and predictability on the daily maximum O3 concentration. [Conclusion]The method also could provide reference for O3 forecast in other areas.