Climate Suitability of Schima superba in Subtropical Zone of China under Future Climate Scenario

摘要

[Objective] The research aimed to study climate suitability of S. superba in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and response of its regional distribution on climate change. [Method] Based on climate-vegetation related Kira model, Holdridge model and ecological suitability theory, climate suitability model of S. superba was established by using fuzzy mathematics. Based on the daily meteorological data at 246 stations of the subtropical zone from 1960 to 2005, by using spatial interpolation method, suitability of S. superba on temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration rate was analyzed. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES), future scenario simulation result was used. Under IPCC A2 scenario, climate suitability of S. superba and its change were studied in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario. Climate suitability of S. superba in future was classified. [Result] Under future climate scenario, climate suitability of S. superba was stronger in most of areas in Hunan, north Guangdong, northeast Guangxi and east coast of Zhejiang. It was suitable for growth of S. superba in central Guangxi, east Guizhou, central Jiangxi and Fuzhou. Growth suitability of S. superba was still lower in the north of Gongshan-Weixi-Lijiang-Yuanjiang-Huize-Leibo-Emei-Neijiang-Nanchong-Bazhong-Zhongxiang-Zaoyang-Xinyang-Luan-Chuzhou-Gaoyou-Taitong. Climate suitability in west Yunnan and Sichuan had big change. Future climate suitability change of S. superba was greatly affected by temperature and potential evapotranspiration rate. [Conclusion] Future climate suitability decreased toward west and north from Hunan. The climate suitability had a decline trend as time went by under future climate scenario. The research provided theoretical basis for studying geographic distribution of the vegetation population.