Distribution Prediction of Suitable Growth Area for Eucommia ulmoides in China under Climatic Change Background

摘要

[Objective]The research aimed to study distribution prediction of suitable growth area for Eucommia ulmoides in China under climatic change background.[Method]By using the maximum entropy model and many kinds of climate change scenarios,we predicted current and future distribution patterns of suitable growth area for Eucommia ulmoides in China and its change process.[Result]At present,highly suitable growth area of E.ulmoides mainly distributed in Sichuan,Shaanxi and Chongqing.Under climate change background,total suitable growth areas in future three decades all drastically reduced when compared with that at present.It was noteworthy that moderately and highly suitable growth areas of wild E.ulmoides all disappeared,and junction between Shaanxi and Gansu and Taibai Mountain would be stable suitable growth area of wild E.ulmoides.[Conclusion]The research could provide useful reference data for investigation,protection and sustainable development of the wild E.ulmoides resources.