目的：：采用灰色预测模型对湖北省2013-2020年医疗机构床位数进行预测，探索灰色预测模型在资源预测中的适用范围、应用条件及局限性。方法：不同条件下灰色预测模型的应用。结果：模型1对湖北省医疗机构床位数的预测结果不合理，模型2和模型3的预测结果较合理，且模型3的预测误差最小、拟合程度最好。外推结果显示，湖北省2015年、2020年医疗机构床位数分别达到30.2万张和44.4万张；2015年、2020年千人口床位数分别达到5.28张和7.59张。结论：灰色预测模型的预测结果与原始数据的筛选和预测量均有关；在采用灰色预测模型对床位数进行预测时，为了提高精确度，应首先对原始数据进行筛选，再根据预测量选取不同年份数据进行预测。%Objective:This research employed Grey Prediction Model to predict the number of hospital beds of Hubei province with an aim to explore its application scope, application conditions and limitations in corresponding resource prediction. Methods:To apply Gray Prediction Model under different conditions. Results:Model failed to produce a reasonable prediction regarding the number of hospital beds in Hubei prov-ince. Model 2 and Model 3 were more applicable in doing the prediction, with Model 3 experiencing the smallest error. The extrapolating results show that the number of hospital beds of Hubei province will be 302,000 in 2015 and 444,000 in 2020;the beds per thousand people will be 5. 28 in 2015 and 7. 59 in 2020. Conclusion:The outcomes of the prediction are influenced by original data screening and predicted quantity. The implications go that to improve the accuracy of the Grey Prediction Model, the primary phase should be raw data screening then followed by the se-lection of hospital bed quantity in different years on the basis of the quantity to be predicted.
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