基于层次分析法的生态敏感海岛开发决策研究——以江苏沿海地区发展规划环评为例

摘要

针对生态敏感型海岛开发难以决策，特别是无法定量的难题，首次采用层次分析法，综合考虑经济效益、社会效益、生态环境影响三方面因素，建立4层10指标2方案综合决策系统，并将其应用于江苏沿海开发规划环评的前三岛、西太阳沙开发决策研究中。结果表明，该决策系统能够客观体现系统要素的全面影响，具有一定的科学性和实用价值，对沿海开发中各类生态敏感海岛及沙洲的开发决策具有重要的指导意义。%To make the decision of ecologically sensitive island development easier, a comprehensive evaluation system was established using the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. In this system, the impacts of economic, social, and ecological environmental were considered, and 10 indicators on four levels were constructed to produce two action plans.Using the system, we investigated the development decision of Qiansandao Island and Xitaiyangsha Cay. The results showed that the system could reflect the impact of various elements. The results had an important significance for decision of ecologically sensitive island development.