知识不确定条件下的海外保障基地自然风险情景模拟评估

摘要

针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估.针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性.%Focusing on the natural risk faced by the overseas support bases,the paper structured the risk assessment system and the Bayes network model based on the risk identification,which used to make quantitative evaluation in scenario simulation.In order to solve the problem of deficiencies of group decision making and decision preference in the process of evaluation with Bayes network,the paper used the Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process to evaluate the risk memberships,improving the objectivity and applicability of the process.