利用MM5V3模式模拟大气波导产生的准确率分析

摘要

基于MM5V3中尺度天气预报模式建立了低空大气波导模拟平台,利用FNL再分析数据与GTS数据对东海海区大气波导分布进行了七个月的模拟.通过那霸、石垣和南大东岛3个站点的实测结果与模拟结果的比较,计算了波导发生的模拟准确率,统计分析了波导随时间的变化.结果表明,MM5V3模式能够较好的模拟出大气波导的产生和变化,尤其是模拟范围广、强度大的波导效果更好.%A platform of simulating atmospheric ducts is established with meso-scale weather forecasting model MM5V3. The distribution of atmospheric ducts over the East China Sea is simulated for 7 months by using FNL reanalysis data and GTS data. The accuracy ratio is calculated by comparing the modeling results with the observations in NAZE, ROIG and ROMD. It's shown that MM5V3 could successfully reproduce the formation and movement of atmospheric duct, especially for those with larger range and high intensity.