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A Dynamic Analysis on Determining of Housing Demand: A Comparison for Turkey, Hungary, and UK

         

摘要

Housing is both good and investment assets so that it plays an important role in the economy. Housing also can be characterized the most complex economic good because of its durability, heterogeneity, locational fixity, the possibility to raise loans against housing collateral, and the effect on well-developed secondary markets. On the other hand, income distribution, socio-economic justice, and regional disparities imply that housing market is an important concept for social and cultural transformation. In this study, the determinants of housing demand were compared for countries. These countries are selected according to economic situation: Turkey, Hungary, and United Kingdom. As a scope of this, the dynamic relationship between the housing demand and variables determining the housing demand in Turkey, Hungary, and UK has been analyzed. The model estimated uses quarterly data from January 2002 to January 2014. Building permits has been considered as housing demand. The other variables used for determining the housing demand are GDP, monetary aggregate, interest rate, and share prices. The long term relationship among variables has been analyzed with Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) as impulse response and variance decomposition. The findings indicate that determining of housing demand changes according to economic and financial components such as government policies, mortgage system, consumer choice, tax, and subsidy in selected countries. All variables play an important role in housing demand, although the level of their impacts varies.

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