P2 P网络借贷对我国货币政策有效性的影响--对沪深P2 P平台暂停注册的忖量

摘要

In this paper, based on the problem of the current P2P network lending platform suspended registration, under the cited documents and qualitative analysis being unable to make a solved case, the mathematical models and empirical analysis, based on P2P net loan credit creation function, systematically answered whether the current P2P platforms necessary access conditions more stringent controls. The mathematical model shows that P2P could improve the effectiveness of Monetary Policy by influencing the cash leakage rate and the ratio of current deposit transfering into fixed deposit. The empirical analysis indicates that P2P lending platform has certain effect on the mediating variable of China's Monetary Policy and on the CPI, the final variable of Monetary Policy. However at the macro level, the role of P2P lending platform in promoting economic development has not manifested by now. Accordingly, the author puts forward some related proposals on the development of P2P lending platform.%文章针对当前P2P网络借贷平台暂停注册的问题，在援引文件及定性分析无法作一解答的情况下，通过数理模型和实证分析，基于P2P网贷的信用创造功能，较为系统地回答了当前是否有必要对P2P平台进行较为严苛的准入条件管制。研究表明：P2P通过影响资金漏损率和活期转化为定期的比率，能够促进社会生产的增加，同时也会造成一定的通货膨胀，从而在一定程度上，强化了央行货币政策的意图。实证分析表明：P2P网络信贷对我国货币政策的中介变量构成了一定的影响，对货币政策的最终变量消费者物价指数也构成了一定的影响，但对经济发展的促进作用还没有显现。在此基础上，作者从宏观层面对P2P 网络信贷平台的发展提出了相关建议。