Quantitative evaluation of the effects of precipitation variation and hunan activities on runoff in Liuyang River watershed is conducive to a more rational utilization of water resource.In this paper we analyzed the evolution law of and the relationship between runoff and precipitation in 1969-2013 in Liuyang River basin by means of linear fitting,moving average and accumulative anomaly.We also estimated the contribution rates of precipitation variation and human activities to runoff variation in different periods quantitatively by comparing cumulative slope variance ratio.Results indicated that precipitation displayed an increasing trend in a rate of 3 mm/(10 a),while runoff represented a decreasing trend in a rate of 2.7 (m3 · s-1)/(10 a).Precipitation and runoff both witnessed an abrupt change in 1989 and 1999 in a trend of "decrease-increase-decrease".Compared with the baseline period from 1969 to 1988,the contribution rates of precipitation variation to runoff variation in 1989-1998 and 1999-2013 were 56.8％ and 7.62％,while the contribution rates of human activities in 1989-1998 and 1999-2013 were 43.2％ and 92.38％,indicating that human activity has become the main factor which affects the runoff variation in Liuyang River watershed.%定量评估降水变化和人类活动对浏阳河流域径流的影响,有助于更合理地利用流域水资源.采用线性拟合、滑动平均和累积距平等方法分析了1969-2013年浏阳河流域径流和降水的演变规律及其相关关系,应用累积斜率变化率比较法定量估算了不同时期降水变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率.结果表明:浏阳河流域降水量表现为增加趋势,上升率为3 mm/(10 a);年径流量表现为下降趋势,下降率为2.7 (m3·s-1)/(10 a);降水和径流在1988年和1999年均发生显著性突变,经历了“减少—增多—减少”的交替变换.与基准期1969-1988年相比,1989-1998年和1999-2013年这2个时期的降水量变化对径流量变化贡献率依次为56.8％,7.62％,而人类活动对径流量的贡献率依次为43.2％,92.38％,可见人类活动已成为影响浏阳河流域径流变化的主要因素.
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