改进的不等时距灰色马尔科夫模型在边坡位移预测中的应用

摘要

研究了改进的不等时距灰色马尔科夫模型在边坡位移预测中的应用,先用S型函数对厦门某边坡的实测数据进行平滑处理,然后用平滑后的数据建立不等时距灰色GM(1,1)模型,最后用改进的计算公式求得马尔科夫模拟值和预测值.结果表明改进后的不等时距灰色马尔科夫GM(1,1)模型的拟合精度和预测精度有了很大的提高,对边坡稳定性预测有一定的参考价值.%Grey Markov model has been widely used in displacement prediction,but the accuracy of the predicting results obtained from the unequal time interval gray Markov model directly established by using the actual measurement data is low,and the error of using the traditional formula to calculate the unequal time interval gray Markov simulation value and the prediction value is large.In response to these deficiencies,this paper studies the application of an improved unequal time interval gray Markov model in slope displacement prediction.First,the actual measured data of a side slope in Xiamen are smoothed by using the S function,and then the unequal interval grey GM (1,1) model was established with the smoothed data,finally the improved formula was adopted to calculate the Markov simulation value and predictive value.Results show that the improved unequal interval grey Markov GM(1,1) model's fitting precision and prediction precision has been greatly improved,and it has some reference value to the slope stability prediction.