高速公路交通事故救援时间与生存率关系模型研究∗

摘要

高速公路交通事故救援时间对事故受伤人员的死亡率有着直接的影响.根据华东地区某高速公路交警支队连续3年的事件记录，分析了交通事故救援时间特性，建立受伤人员的生存函数模型，用非参数方法研究了交通事故救援时间对生存率的影响，然后再利用 Cox 比例风险回归模型来分析影响生存率的因素.结果表明，受伤人员的生存率随救援时间的增加而逐渐降低，在接到报警的14分钟之后，生存率即可降至75％以下，因此伤者应在14分钟之内得到必要的紧急救护.同时，在影响因素分析中，发现接警时段是影响伤者生存的危险因素，伤者在夜间时段的死亡风险是白天时段的3．46倍.%The rescue time of traffic collisions on expressways has a direct impact on traffic collision fatalities.Based on three consecutive years'collision records of an expressway in east China,the characteristics of rescue time were ana-lyzed in this paper.The impacts of rescue time on the survival rates were studied by using non-parametric estimation methods,and a survival-analysis model of the injuries was developed.Furthermore,factors of survival rates were ana-lyzed with Cox regression models.The results show that the survival rates of the injuries decrease with the increase of res-cue time.The survival rates can decrease to below 75% in about 14 minutes after the occurrence of collisions,so the inju-ries should be given necessary emergency rescue within 14 minutes.Meanwhile,further analysis of factors indicates the time of collisions is a risk factor of survival,and the risk of death in the nighttime is 3.46 times higher than in the day-time.