利用成交量概率模型解释股价波动

摘要

The flucation of the stock price is one of the most obvious characteristics in the stock market. The fluctation of the stock price make the post, so the stock investors can profit. The behavioral finance theory explains the stock price flucation from the invest's behavior psychology. In fact all kinds factors affect directly the turnover when they effect investor's behavior and psychology. The turnover is the number of the shares transactions on the same day. But the turnover can't analyze deeply the stock price. A turnover probability model is made through analyzing the people probability of a single stock straddle both sides, the transaction probability, no the transaction probability in a moment price. Meantime it can explain the reason why the stock price fluactuate. Then the specific cases verify the validity of the model. Finally many reasons of the stock price fluctuation can boil down to the turnover probability. The investors forecast effectively the stock price in order to take the smaller risk of a larger profit from the probability model. Meanwhile it can explain the unusual price fluctuation.%　　股票市场价格的波动是股票市场最显著的特征之一，股价波动产生了差价，股票投资者才能获得利润。行为金融学理论从投资者的行为心理解释股价波动的原因，实际上当各种各样的因素影响投资者的心理和行为时，直接影响了成交量，成交量是当日所成交的股票的数量，但用股票的成交量，并不能深刻地剖析股价的波动，通过分析股市中在某个时刻、某个价位，单个股票多空双方所占的人数的概率、成交量的概率、不成交量概率，建立了成交量的概率模型，同时解释了股价波动的原因，然后用具体的案例验证了模型的正确性，因此股价波动的众多原因最终可归结为成交率概率的不同。成交量的概率模型可以帮助投资者有效地预测股价，冒较小的风险获得较大的利润，同时也解释了股价异常波动。