我国能源、经济与环境协调发展分析

摘要

There is a development relationship of mutual influence and mutual restraint between the three systems of energy, econo-my and environment, and the coordinated development of the three is the ultimate development goal of the 3E system. In this paper, the coordinated development model on the evaluation index system of China's energy, economy and environment, using principal component analysis and factor analysis, calculated the coefficient of the coordinated development between the three systems, and made the compre-hensive evaluation of energy, economy and environment. Empirical test concluded that: the trend of changes in the value of the develop-ment level of China's energy, economy and environment subsystems was significantly different, in which the environment subsystem had the maximum variation value of the development level, and it could be seen from the average value of the coordination coefficients be-tween energy, environment and economy systems that energy and environment was very uncoordinated. Energy and the economy was in a basic coordination state, economy and environment, as well as energy, economy and environment was in uncoordinated state.%　　能源、经济与环境三个系统之间存在着相互影响、相互制约的发展关系，三者的协调发展是3E系统发展的最终目标。本文通过对我国能源、经济与环境协调发展评价指标体系的模型构建，运用主成分分析法和因子分析法，测算了三个系统之间的协调发展系数，并进行了能源、经济与环境之间的综合发展评价。实证检验结论认为：我国能源、经济和环境各子系统的综合发展水平值的变化趋势差异显著，其中环境子系统综合发展水平值变化幅度最大；从能源、环境与经济各系统之间的协调系数平均值可以看出，能源与环境处于极不协调状态，能源与经济处于基本协调状态，经济与环境以及能源之间均处于不协调状态。