近35年深圳市气候变化与城市化发展的关联性

摘要

Based on the climate date and the statistical yearbook of Shenzhen from 1979 to 2013,linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test,principal component analysis,fitted curve analysis method were used to analyze the climate change and its relevance with urban development in Shenzhen nearly 30 years.The results showed that:(1) It was found that the climate get drier and warmer in Shenzhen during the last 35 years.The annual mean temperature showed a rising trend of 0.338 ℃/10a while the warming rate of average minimum temperature was higher than the average maximum temperature which is 0.573 ℃/10a and 0.145 ℃/10a respectively.The rising trend of temperature was particularly obvious after the mutation occurred in 1986 while a slowdown tendency appeared in recent several years.The average relative humidity decrease rate is 1.97％ every 10 years,the average relative humidity in Shenzhen from 2000 to 2010 has dropped more than 5％ compared to that of the 1980s,while it had a decrease about 5 percent from 1980 to 2000.The percentage of precipitation and sunshine presented an irregular fluctuation.(2) The average maximum temperature was mainly influenced by the variation of the population,building and agriculture in the development of urbanization which the comprehensive contribution rate is close to 50％.The rise of average temperature and the average minimum temperatures were significantly intensified by urbanization.Comprehensive urbanization index U1 and U2 contributed 63％ and 78％ to the warming trend respectively.The contribution rate of U4 to average relative humidity is 60％,which is based on the index of construction industry,crop planting area and industry index.Attention should be paid to the "dry island effect" problem in the urbanization of Shenzhen.%依据深圳市气象站1979-2013年的气象观测资料和历年统计年鉴,利用线性分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、主成分分析和拟合曲线等数理统计方法,分析了深圳市近35年的气候变化规律及其与城市化发展的关联性.结果显示:(1)近35年深圳市气候整体呈现变干变暖的趋势,平均气温升温速率为0.338℃/10a,平均最低气温的升温速率(0.573℃/10a)远大于平均最高气温的升温速率(0.145℃/10a),以1986年为突变点,升温趋势加剧,近几年出现减缓态势;平均相对湿度的下降速率为每10年下降1.97％,2000-2010年,深圳市的平均相对湿度比20世纪80年代的平均相对温度下降大于5％,且降水量和年日照百分比呈不规律的波动变化.(2)深圳市城市化主要通过人口、房屋建筑和农业发展对平均最高温度产生影响,综合贡献率接近50％;城市化发展对平均气温和平均最低气温的升高有极显著的加剧作用,构建的城市化综合指标U1、U2的升温贡献率分别达到了63％和78％;以建筑业指数、农作物播种面积和工业指数等为主要指标构建的综合指标U对平均相对湿度的降低贡献率达到60％,需要注意城市发展中的“干岛效应”问题.