中国梨出口影响因素及贸易潜力

摘要

选取1992—2009年中国向17个主要贸易伙伴国梨出口量的面板数据，基于引力模型分析并测算我国梨出口决定因素与贸易潜力，为提高梨出口数量、优化梨出口结构提供依据。研究结果表明，梨产量、进出口国人均GDP、距离等变量对我国梨出口产生重要影响；梨生产成本的攀升严重制约了出口量的增加；我国与主要贸易伙伴国人均收入的缩小有利于梨出口量的增加；我国梨出口在发达国家市场贸易不足，在发展中国家市场上贸易过度。%Based on gravity model, the paper uses Chinese 17 main trading partners’ panel data of pear trade from 1992 to 2009 to conduct empirical study of influencing factors and estimate potential for pear exports, and put forward reasonable proposals to enhance the export volume and optimize the layout of pear exporting market.The results show that: pear production, per-capita GDP between trade partners and distance has an important impact on exporting;rapid increase in cost of production severely restricted the exports; the narrowing of the per-capita GDP between partners will create more exports; Chinese pears have more potential on the market of developed countries .