电力改革中发电企业期权博弈投资策略研究

摘要

为了对发电企业的投资决策提供科学合理的定量化评估方法、步骤及过程,根据期权博弈理论,分析了发电企业在非对称双头垄断市场结构中的投资策略;研究了一个或多个企业在不同的投资成本下纳什均衡投资策略,通过对案例进行仿真计算,利用所得出的Matlab仿真图说明了有关的投资优化决策方案.研究的结论对当前我国电力改革发电企业投资决策实践活动具有一定的理论指导意义.%In order to provide power enterprises with the scientific and reasonable quantitative appraisal methods, steps and procedures in the investment decision, the investment strategies of power enterprises were analyzed under the market structure of asymmetrical duopoly based on option game theory. The Nash equilibrium of investment strategies was studied for one firm or more under different investment costs.Matlab software was used to simulate the cases and the resulted graphs were utilized to illustrate the optimal decision of investment. The conclusion will contribute to the investment decision practice of the power enterprises in China on the power system reform.