FDI影响广东三大产业的动态回归模型

摘要

利用广东省1979-2008年外商直接投资总额和相关三大产业生产总值等数据资料,以外商直接投资总额为解释变量,能够建立起广东省三大产业生产总值的动态回归模型.这一动态回归模型的拟合效果很好,能反映广东省外商直接投资影响三大产业生产总值方面的动态关系,很好地预测未来的生产总值,进而明确三大产业发展的方向.%With the historical economical data of Guangdong from 1979 to 2008 and the FDI as predicting factors, three dynamic regression models were established for three major industry in Guangdong.The forecasting value basically agrees with the actual value, and is expressive of the three major industry. Thus,the model can better reflect the dynamic-relationship between three major industry and FDI in Guangdong in terms of time.