豫东地区小麦常见气象灾害的发生规律探讨

摘要

以1963-2010年度商丘市小麦生长季的气象数据为资料,系统地研究了小麦生育期气象灾害发生规律,并深入分析了形成原因.研究表明,该区小麦干旱、冻害和干热风发生情况分别为十年八遇、十年十遇、十年八遇,重灾年发生情况分别为十年六遇、十年八遇、十年七遇.与常年相比,3种气象灾害的发生频率呈现干旱和冻害变化不大,干热风有所减少;危害程度呈现冻害、干热风有所减轻,干旱在特殊生育期逐渐加重的趋势;时期分别呈现干旱在越冬期发生频率最高,年际间变化较大,返青至开花阶段频率次之,年际间变化较小,播种至出苗期频率最小,但呈逐渐增加趋势,冻害在初冬和早春逐渐减少,越冬和晚霜逐渐增多,干热风呈5月下旬减少、6月上旬增多的态势;空间分布呈现干旱东部和南部少,中部次之,北部和西部多,冻害东部重,西部次之,中部轻,干热风南部、中部轻,东部和西北部重的特征.%In this paper,the meteorological data of wheat growing season in Shangqiu city from 1963 to 2010 were used to systematically study the occurrence of meteorological disasters during wheat growing period and to deeply analyze the causes of them.The results showed that the occurrence frequency of wheat drought,frost damage and dry-hot wind in this area were 10 years and 8 cases,10 years and 10 cases,10 years and 8 cases,respectively,and the annual rates of severe disasters were 10 years and 6 cases,10 years and 8 years and 10 years and 7 cases,respectively.Compared with the normal years,the occurrence frequency of drought and frost damage showed little change,while that of dry-hot wind decreased;in terms of the degree of harm,harm caused by frost damage and dry-hot wind decreased,harm caused by drought tended to become gradually severe in special growth period.Drought occurred most frequendy during the wintering period,with a greater change during the intervening period,followed by the frequency from green-turning stage to the flowering stage,with less variation during the intervening period,and drought occurred least frequently from seeding to the emergence stage,yet with a tendency of gradually increasing.The frost damage gradually decreased in early winter and early spring,and increased during over-wintering and spring frost.Dry-hot wind showed a tendency of decreasing in late May and increasing in early June.The spatial distribution of drought was less in the eastern and southern parts,followed by the central part,and most in the northern and the western part;the spatial distribution of frost damage was the most severe in the east,less in the west,slight in the central part;dry-hot wind occurred less frequently in the southern and the central parts and more frequently in the eastern and northwestern parts.