Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

摘要

This paper deals with the prediction of potentially maximum magnitude and origin time for reservoir induced seismicity (RIS). The factor and sign of seismology and geology of RIS has been studied, and the information quantity for magnitude of induced seismicity provided by them has been calculated. In terms of information quan-tity the biggest possible magnitude of RIS is determined. The changes of seismic frequency with time are studied using grey model method, and the time of the biggest change rate is taken as original time of the main shock. The feasibility of methods for predicting magnitude and time has been tested for the reservoir induced seismicity in the Xinfengjiang reservoir, China and the Koyna reservoir, India.