玉树地震前NCEP异常现象

摘要

利用天体引潮力周期变化计算模型和NCEP多源综合温度数据资料,分析了2010年4月14日青海玉树Ms7.1地震的诱因.结果表明:在玉树地震前,天体引潮力经历低谷-高峰-低谷-高峰的连续变化,NCEP遥感数据呈现出起始增温-加强增温-高峰增温-增温衰减的规律,由此证明以NCEP温度为主导,以天体引潮力构造附加应力变化为参考,是一种有希望的预测思路.%Using the cycle process model of the astro-tidal-triggering and according to the NCEP integrated multi-source temperature data, we analyzed the triggering factors of Yushu MS7.1 earthquake in Qinghai occurred on Apr. 14 in 2010. The result indicated that astro-tidal-triggering went through a continuous change between peak and trough, such as "trough-peak-trough-peak" , and the NCEP remote sensing data showed the law of "original temperature rise-enhancement-reaching peak-attenuation" before Yushu MS7. 1 earthquake. Thus, under the dominant of temperature variation in the NCEP remote sensing data and taking the tectonic additional stress variation of astro-tidal-triggering as the reference is a promising idea to predict the earthquake.