灰色变权组合模型的货车车轮踏面磨耗预测

摘要

In order to discuss the application of changeable weight combination forecasting model in wheel tread wear forecasting of freight line,the changeable weight combination forecasting method based on new information GM(1,1 )model,discrete GM(1,1 )model and exponential smoothing model was utilized to analyze wheel tread wear volumes along with the change of running distances.Subsequently,the results obtained in this paper were compared with the prediction ones with single models and the fixed weight combination prediction ones.The results show that combination forecasting method is more reasonable than purely single forecasting method and the solutions are more reliable.The changeable weight combination forecasting mode is better than fixed weight com-bination model and has a higher prediction accuracy.Therefore,an effective forecast method is giving for accu-rately predicting the wear volumes and could be a feasible solution to freight line vehicle wheel maintenance and decision.%为探讨变权组合模型在货运专线车轮踏面磨耗趋势预测中的应用，采用基于灰色新息 GM（1，1）模型、灰色离散GM（1，1）模型和指数平滑模型为一体的变权组合方法研究货运专线车轮踏面随走行公里的磨耗趋势，并与各单项模型预测结果和定权组合预测结果作对比，研究结果表明：应用组合方法比单纯应用单项预测模型方法更合理，预测结果更可靠，且变权组合预测模型优于定权组合预测模型，预测精度较高。本文所提出的变权组合预测方法能够很好地预测货运专线上车轮踏面的磨耗趋势，是一种研究运输专线上车辆轮对维护决策的有效方法。