Research Objectives: The relationship between long-term interest rate distortion and output gap is analyzed in this paper. Research Methods: Using three step method of Holston et al. (2017), we estimate the long-term equilibrium interest rate and equilibrium loan-deposit spreads, and then compare them with the interest rate and loan-deposit spreads in real economy respectively, so as to determine the direction of two types of interest rate distortion. Research Findings: Interest rate is distorted firstly and then causes the actual output to deviate from the equilibrium output. The asymmetric and loose tendencies of interest rate policy are likely to exacerbate the economic bubbles. During the period of recovery and prosperity, loan-deposit spreads deviate from the equilibrium level, which indicates that the banking system will expand its excess return at all means. However, once the deviation exceeds a critical point, the willingness of saving and investment will be suppressed, and the risk of loan default will be increased. Finally, economic recession is likely to happen. Research Innovations: We clearly distinguish between short-term and long-term equilibrium interest rate in order to distinguish"intended distortion"and"passive regulation"of monetary policy. Research Value: We put forward a new idea that long-term inappropriate monetary policy may become a big shock which will harm long-run economic growth.%研究目标:分析长期利率扭曲与产出缺口之间的关系.研究方法:借鉴Holston等(2017)的三步法估计长期均衡利率和均衡利差,并与现实经济中的利率和存贷利差进行比较,判断利率扭曲和存贷利差扭曲的方向.研究发现:政策利率扭曲在先,进而造成实际产出偏离均衡产出.利率调控的非对称性和宽松倾向容易加剧经济泡沫.在经济复苏期与繁荣期,存贷利差偏离均衡利差的程度更大,表明以银行业为代表的金融资本在此时会采取手段扩张其超额收益.然而,一旦利差扭曲超过一定临界点,就会导致储蓄和投资意愿都降低,贷款违约风险加大,容易引发经济衰退.研究创新:提出应明确区分短期和长期均衡利率.采用短期利率缺口判断货币政策倾向时将难于区分"主动扭曲"与"被动调节".研究价值:提出长期不适宜的货币政策可能成为大冲击源损害经济增长的基础.
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