FDI对上海市产业结构优化升级的影响--基于VAR模型的实证研究

摘要

利用上海市1985—2014年三产值、三产就业人数及外商直接投资（ FDI ）的实际数据，建立VAR模型，运用Granger（格兰杰）非因果检验、应用脉冲响应分析等计量理论与方法对上海市产业结构合理化、高级化和外商直接投资进行动态实证分析。结果表明：外商直接投资对上海市产业结构合理化和高级化均有促进作用，且对产业结构合理化的贡献大于对产业结构高级化的贡献。%This writer establishes VAR model by using the actual data of industies ontput values,employment figures,and foreign direct investment(FDI)of Shanghai from 1985 to 2014,and conducts a dynamic empirical a-nalysis of Shanghai’s industrial structure rationalization,upgrading and FDI by means of Granger noncausality test,impulse response analysis. The results show that FDI promotes the rationalization and upgrading of Shanghai’s industrial structure and FDI gives more promotion to the rationalization than the upgrading.