An Estimation Method for Kill Probability Based on Random Residence Time Series

摘要

Relations between statistical residence time series and effective shooting are analyzed in accordance with the properties of the random residence time of maneuver targets crossing shot area in a given time. An estimation method for kill probability is proposed, which solves the probability of number of residence times satisfied effective shooting in given time. Some expressions and their approximate formulae of kill probability are derived, under known the distribution of residence time series. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that this method is suitable for evaluating the hit ability of fire system for maneuver targets in random shooting.